Airyards Buy Low Week 2, 2024
The model returns for its 9th season
The Buy Low is going behind the paywall this season. I think you’ll find that the added analysis, videos and data on top of the solid track record of the predictive model to be worth the price.
These write-ups go through basically my complete thought process when projecting players, and it’s something I’ve never fully shared before — mostly because historically I’ve published early in the week before a full analysis could be done. To make time for the more complete analysis, I’m going to roll these out later in the week this year. I hope you enjoy, and appreciate your support.
For free subscribers: Most non-fantasy analysis will remain free and outside the paywall, so if that is why you’re a subscriber, fear not. You’ll still get “real” football content in your inbox at no cost. Larger analysis with novel, actionable findings will go behind the wall, but I will publish an open abstract, code and data for replication.
Finally, I’m almost done with the DFS optimizer app that will come pre-loaded with guys on the Buy Low. I hope to have it out prior to Sunday’s games for subscribers.
Player Notes
I’ve removed guys like CeeDee Lamb and Trey McBride from the list since they are consensus WR and TE ones. Anyone ranked WR 13 or TE 7 or lower is fair game as a Buy Low.
For new readers, Buy Lows are upside plays that have a higher probability to blow up than you would expect given their recent performance. The model heavily weights opportunity in the form of targets and air yards to identify potentially mispriced receivers.
I have little doubt about the edge it provides after eight years. My thoughts on why it continues to be effective are based on game theory and can be found here, but the gist is the following:
When we look at a winning lineup we expect to see something that looks like this:
We expect to have the lineup tell us a story. The story should tell us about the person who designed it (the why of their thought process) and it should tell a story about how the team ultimately won (the how of the outcome). We do not see much of that in isupol’s tournament winning lineup. Instead we see something like this:
A tangle. A place where our narrative-loving brains go to die. Something efficient, though we can’t see how. Something that won, yet we can’t see why…
…I’m pretty sure I’m leading people astray by pointing out my pet narratives, even if they seem reasonable. Instead, the winning move is probably to create a story for yourself that allows for the possibility that the correct answer will be something that can’t be reasoned to, or reasoned about.
Some names on the Buy Low can’t be reasoned to as good plays using the conventional tools of football analysis. Yet they do fit a profile that says they belong. And in tournaments where differentiation is the key to winning, unintuitive plays have value. Something to keep in mind as you read what follows.
The full list of Buy Lows, including players I did not write about, is at the bottom of the article.
DJ Moore
Week 1: 5/8 for 36 yards and 0 TDs
Most of Moore’s targets came in the second half against Tennessee when the Bears were clawing their way back into contention after spotting the Titans a 17 point lead. And while it was ultimately defense and special teams that won the day for Chicago, it was good to see Moore continue to be a focal point in the new offense.
Moore’s weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) was 0.580, a distant second on the team to Keenan Allen’s 0.898, which is concerning. What WOPR measures is target share and share of team air yards, and it weights each to best predict fantasy points. So Moore’s opportunity was worth about 65 percent of Allen’s.1
What mitigates this — and what makes Moore a Buy Low at consensus WR 26 on FantasyPros — is that his route inventory is appealing for DFS tournaments. Eight targets is a healthy number of looks, and according to Fantasy Points charting, Moore ran 37 percent of his routes (11 out of 30) vertically up the field. He “won” separation on 2 of them and was targeted twice on high-value intermediate to deep routes.2
Here are a couple of the plays that make the the model think Moore is a bounce-back candidate:
In the first play, Moore (top) runs a vertical and smartly comes across the field back to his quarterback Caleb Williams when he sees him flee the pocket. Williams gets lucky when the bull rush by edge Arden Key interferes with T'Vondre “Meatloaf” Sweat’s impending sack, giving him a chance to escape and get on his horse.
And getting on his horse is not a bad thing. Williams makes an impressive throw, on the run and across his body and nearly completes a long pass to Moore. There are more on-the-move shenanigans in the second clip. This time it’s a designed boot off of play action. The pass is complete and to me shows Williams can operate competently in plays schemed to make him feel at home and comfortable.
It’s certainly not all roses for DJ Moore moving forward, though. His QB had a rough first start, ranking in the bottom third of the league in both Ben Baldwin’s blended rankings and in Kevin Cole’s Adjusted QB Efficiency metric. Both metrics attempt to adjust production for luck and context.
Williams will either have to get more easy looks schemed for him on the move — coupled with a heavy dose of play action3 — or (less likely) take a step forward in his growth against the Texans in Week 2.
I tend to think one or the other is a decent bet, and that production for Moore should follow.
Zay Flowers
Week 1: 6/10 for 37 yards and 0 TDs
Flowers played on Thursday night, so the Ravens’ performance was seen by the entire world and has been picked over and analyzed to death. But what people may have taken from the game is that Isaiah Likely or Mark Andrews will be the focal points of the passing attack. But I think Ravens head coach John Harbaugh was telling the truth in a recent presser when he said:
"We didn't bring Derrick in here to be the guy that gets the ball 30 times a game," Harbaugh said, via the team's official transcript. "He's done that before. That's really not the plan. The plan is Derrick, Lamar, Mark (Andrews), Isaiah (Likely), Zay (Flowers), Bate (Rashod Bateman) and Nelly (Nelson Agholor). That's kind of the plan in this offense going forward."
This idea — that NFL teams change the focus of the offense from game to game — is foundational to the Buy Low. It’s why wide receiver performances, even the very best, look like sine waves when you plot them over the course of a season. Defenses try and take away the hot hand from a team, and offenses adjust. This week could be Flowers’ turn.
He certainly will get his deep looks. According to Fantasy Points charting, 20 of Flowers’ 47 routes against the Chiefs were verts, and he “won” separation on 20 percent of them. If the Cincinnati Bengals focus on defending Likely (and Andrews) in the intermediate area, a deep shot or two should come Zay’s way.
Recent history is on Zay’s side, too. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson looked to Flowers often in the AFC Championship game this past January (8 targets, 5 catches). In that game — one where he saw fewer looks than this past week — Flowers turned his opportunities into 115 yards and a touchdown, including a 54 yard catch against the Chiefs best cornerback, L’Jarius Sneed. 4
They also almost connected for a TD in Week 1:
Perhaps most importantly, the Ravens will need to pass more (or lean more on Derrick Henry) if they want to keep Lamar on the field. Rushing 16 times a game like Lamar did in Week 1 simply isn’t sustainable for a player who has been dinged up and missed games in multiple seasons over his career. He took a day off Monday to rest, and it’s only Week 2.
Finally, it’s perhaps worth noting that it was Flowers’ birthday this week. I know because he tweeted himself a HBD, as one does. Harbaugh is the type of coach that could use Flowers’ born day as an excuse to manufacture some targets for Zay to help motivate him and fire up the team.