I’m switching things up this week and leading with the Buy Low.
Week 9 has some interesting names on it. Rookie phenom Puka Nacua tops the list, and old friends like Nico Collins, Chris Olave and Amari Cooper are sprinkled across the rest of the Buy Low.
Puka may not have Matthew Stafford throwing to him this this week due to a thumb injury. Meanwhile Puka himself is dealing with a knee issue that kept him out of practice on Wednesday. He’s almost certainly a buy low despite his consensus rank of 10.
Uncertain QB play is kind of a theme among the rest of the receivers on the list this week with the possible exception of D.K. Metcalf, making him a relatively safe choice. Still, Jaxon Smith-Njigba seems to have captured the imagination of the fantasy world and Tyler Lockett is struggling with a hammy injury. JSN has been getting some run the past two weeks and has looked good, so that might work to depress Metcalf’s ownership in tournaments.
On to some real football analysis.
Scoring Is Down In The NFL. But Why?
Let’s talk about scoring.
In 2020 NFL teams set an all-time high in per-team, per-game scoring. The league-wide average that season of 24.8 points bested the previous record of 23.6 set in 1948 by almost a full point. Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers — hell, NFL passing offenses in general — were prolific:
Teams set an all-time record for league-wide Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt (6.4), a metric which accounts for sacks and yards lost on sacks.1
Teams threw interceptions at rate of just 2.2 percent — another all-time record
Teams set an all-time record with a league-wide passer rating of 93.6
Since 2020 scoring has slid. In 2021 the scoring average fell 1.8 points to 23.0. In 2021 it sank another 1.1 points to 21.9. And so far in 2023 teams are mustering just 21.8 points per game, the lowest scoring average since 2017. What’s going on?
There are two obvious theories that might explain the downturn, and they’re not mutually exclusive.
Defenses have adjusted and are doing their best to take away deeper passes. Since explosive passing plays often lead to points, this could help explain the scoring drop. We know 2-high safety coverages have become more common throughout the league in the past couple years, so this is a popular explanation.
QB play is down. In fact it’s downright bad. The list of QB injuries this year is a long one, veteran QBs who used to be good no longer are, stars like Brady have retired, and promising youngsters have largely failed to deliver the type of production we were seeing from elite passers in 2020.
I’ll take each one in turn.
Theory 1. Two-high Defenses Are Depressing Scoring
If Defenses were the cause of the decreased scoring (by e.g. keeping two safeties deep) I might expect a few things to happen:
On plays where teams pass, I’d probably expect to see QBs hold the ball longer as they’re forced to go through their reads. Often (but not always) in obvious passing situations, play concepts will dictate that the QB start his read deep or intermediate — which I’d assume would be covered — and finish with a short check-down or hot route.
I’d also expect to see a lower average depth of target on passes across the league. Defenses want to make the QB hold the ball and then resort to short passes that allow defenders to rally to the ball and make the stop.
If teams are holding the ball longer, I’d expect to see a rise in the sack rate. The longer a QB holds the ball, the higher the chances of a sack. There are some problems with oversimplifying here, though. More on sack rate later.
I’d expect to see an increase in rushing efficiency. Defenses can’t deploy defenders to stop the pass and also get numbers in the box to stop the run, particularly against spread offenses that use the entire width of the football field.
So much for theory; let’s look at what’s actually happened.
According to charting by Pro Football Focus, the median starting QB2 is indeed holding the ball longer than at any time since PFF began charting in 2011 (2.79 seconds).3
Data: Pro Football Focus
It’s also true that average depth of target has fallen for the median NFL QB so far in 2023 (11.9 from 12.1 in 2022) on plays where they hold the ball for over 2.5 seconds, which matches what I expected to see if 2-high shells were doing their job (though it it hasn’t fallen that much. aDOT was lower on those passes in 2021, for instance).
The median sack rate on plays where the QB holds the ball for over 2.5 seconds is also way up over previous seasons — a full percentage point over 2021 to 10.8 percent, and the second highest rate since 2011. That’s decent evidence that the secondary is doing its job giving the pass rush time to get home.
But there is also evidence here that goes against my expectations.
Median share of drop backs where the QB holds that ball over 2.5 seconds has fallen from 2022. Time to throw is up, so I would have expected to see the share of plays over 2.5 seconds go up as well.
Offenses may have adjusted and offensive coordinators may be calling more quick game plays. aDOT on those quicker developing pass plays is up a half a yard over 2021 indicating that the throws are more valuable. In terms of football tactics, this is exactly what you’d want to see from offenses to defeat 2 deep looks. That and higher rushing efficiency.
The median sack rate on quick passes (2.5 seconds or less) is also up. In fact sack rate on these quick plays is the second highest it’s been in the period for which we have data. This is strange if I’m trying to give credit to the secondary for the sack rate bump. This might indicate that it’s not just the back end of the defense that’s doing its job well — edge rushers and interior linemen are having a year as well.
Finally, rushing efficiency hasn’t increased. It’s fallen all the way to 4.1 YPC, almost half a yard less than the all-time high set last year.
Takeaway: There’s something to this 2-high argument — QBs are holding the ball longer and getting sacked more — but it’s unclear just how much keeping safeties deep is the cause of the low scoring. It seems like it’s not the main cause, but the effect is also almost certainly not zero.
Theory 2. QBs Are Bad Now, So Scoring Is Down
Here is where things get tricky. Most of the things I’d expect to find in the data if 2-high safety shells were the reason for the scoring decline are also what I’d expect to find if QB play was falling off.
QB’s are largely responsible for their sack rate, so if QBs were not getting the ball out on time and on target, I’d expect the sack rate to go up across all drop backs.
Bad QBs hold the ball too long because they are not sure what they’re seeing, so I’d expect to see an increase in time to throw.
Nothing in football correlates to scoring (and winning and losing) as strongly as QB play, so if NFL QBs were having a rough year collectively that would obviously lead to a low scoring environment.
The sack rate on all drop backs has skyrocketed to the highest it’s been since 1998 (7.2 percent). Score one for Bad QB.
We already know time to throw is up.
And glancing at a list of starting QBs in Week 9 seems like strong evidence that we’re in a Bad QB environment. Seeing starting QBs named Clayton Tune, Tyson Bagnet, Phillip Walker, Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connel, Zach Wilson, Kenny Pickett and Sam Howell is pretty gross. And the top end is not much better.
A comparison of ANY/A from 2020 to 2023 is illuminating.
Source: Pro Football Reference
No one in the top 10 in ANY/A in 2020 was below 7.4 yards per attempt. This year only two QBs meet that threshold.
The 10th best QB by ANY/A in 2020, Kirk Cousins, is currently third in 2023 — and he was just lost for the season to an achilles injury. The best QB on the planet, Patrick Mahomes, just lost to the dreadful Denver Broncos and hasn’t been his normal superhuman self this season. He’s ranked 9th. Dak Prescott is 11th. Number one overall pick Trevor Lawrence is slumming it between Russell Wilson and Baker Mayfield at 13th. Geno Smith is 15th. Matthew Stafford is 16th and has a bum thumb. Joe Burrow is 23rd.
Shit is disgusting. Obviously the defense has a vote here, but this seems like a convincing explanation for the scoring downturn. Couple this with the fact that field goal attempts by NFL teams are the 6th highest all time, and the highest level since 1973 (2.06) and I think I have found my favored theory.
Takeaway: 2023 has been a forgettable year for high-end QB play, and the Bad QB hypothesis explains the league-wide scoring downturn in a more convincing way than the defensive argument — though clearly they are linked in important ways.
Conclusions
The way I see it, the Bad QB hypothesis explains 60 percent of the scoring dip. Defensive structure explains 30 percent. D-line talent explains most of the rest, with some dreadful coaching decisions (like running kickoffs out of the end zone and settling for field goals too often on 4th down) accounting for the remainder.
ANY/A is (Passing Yards - Sack Yards + (20 * Passing TD) - (45 * Interceptions)) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked)
I looked at the top 32 QBs by number of dropbacks in each season from 2011-23, and calculated the median average time to throw for each group.
Since PFF starting charting time to throw in 2011. 2.785 so far in 2023 vs. 2.780 in 2013.
Wild article, QB play is definitely down this year, it's all about that QB pressure. Why else would the 49ers trade for Chase Young and stack their front 7? Gonna be fun to see this play out.
INT% up across the board between those two tables of QB performances