Will the new kickoff rule lead to more kickoff returns?

Betteridge knows the answer

This Tuesday I joined Kevin Cole on Unexpected Points to talk about the impact of the new kickoff rule.

The tl;dl is that I don’t expect much of an increase in kickoff returns. I think early on there will be chaos as Special Teams coordinators attempt to justify their roles, but eventually teams will learn that the risk vs. reward in kicking a returnable ball just doesn't pencil out.

Why? The main factor is where the ball is placed if a team decides to kick the ball through the back of the endzone¹. Under the XFL rules the returning team’s drive started at the 35, but under the NFL’s rule teams get the ball at the 30.

This is important because according to Shawn Syed’s charting data, the average ball placement in the XFL on all returned kickoffs, including penalties was…the 29.9 yard line. Here’s the full distribution:

There’s no edge, on average, to kicking a ball that can be returned, and that’s a big problem if your goal is to entice more kickoff returns.

In 2023 in the XFL over 35 percent of returns went for more than 30 yards, and on the plays that were very successful — pinning the team at the 15 for instance —- the kicking team only earned about 0.13 points² relative to just kicking out of the end zone and guaranteeing the ball at the 30.

In more bad news, there were nearly as many returns by the receiving team all the way to the kicking team’s own 45. Each of those cost the kicking team -0.14 points³, mostly negating the impact of the positive plays.

Even worse, as the number of returnable kickoffs rise, so do the chances for the ultimate disaster: a kickoff return for a touchdown. Even one of those and the overall contribution to the team from kickoffs will (almost surely) instantly become massively negative on the season.

So why would a rational team forgo a guaranteed spot at the 30 and accept the negative variance of a play that has the potential to cost them 6 points? We go over one potential reason on the pod, but given what we know right now I’d be selling a steep rise in kick returns in 2024.

1. There are other reasons. Check out the pod if you’re interested.

2. Using 2023 expected points from the NFL.

3. Also 2023 NFL expected points